Adline - Digital Radio                                                   Ruth Allen/Ruthmedia

'The future is digital!' was the insistent word on the street as the technology of the 1990s carried us towards the new millennium. So now that the future is here, has digital arrived with it? The idea of digital TV is fairly well established, but what about digital radio? Has this third age of sound broadcasting - after AM and FM - fulfilled the promise of a crystal-clear, interactive, instant selection, multi-station future for consumers and an enhanced market for advertisers? Or has the potential of digital audio broadcasting (DAB) been tarnished at its birth by an upstart rival, internet radio?

The main message from the radio industry is 'Keep the faith!' The digital revolution is on course - it is coming surely...but slowly. "It's relatively early days - we're in at the start of an industry that will be big," says Quentin Howard, Chief Executive of Digital One, the single national commercial multiplex, whose ten stations cover everything from rock music and easy listening to the spoken word. "The main problem is inevitably the low initial uptake in receivers, which may stand at the moment around 30,000. Pushing that number up is the main challenge, and here the in-car receiver is going to play a vital role."

John Myers, Head of Radio for the Guardian Media Group (GMG), agrees : "We're part of the MXR consortium that has forged the vital link with Ford Motors that will see a digital radio in every new Ford car from 2004. There's little doubt that digital will succeed in the long term. The future is bright, but it will take a frustratingly long time. Having Ford on board though is the key."

"The success of digital depends on getting receivers into the hands of listeners," confirms John Rosborough, Station Director of Belfast's City Beat station, soon to spread its digital signal across Northern Ireland. "Cars are going to be a key part of that process. Once they become standard, more people will hear it and appreciate the vast improvements in sound quality and the signal reliability in any location. I'm optimistic about the future - it's like a snowball, and once it starts rolling, the momentum will carry it forward to success."

Elly Smith, Head of Communications at Capital Radio Group, one of the major broadcasters, is equally optimistic : "There's no doubt it's a frustratingly slow process at the start, but we have made great progress. It's partly an educational process - and not just with the public. Everyone has a role to play, from the equipment manufacturers and retailers to the government, who must make more of a commitment, for example, setting a timescale - however far distant - for switching off analogue."

With the slow start, commercial stations are finding it difficult to invest in programming, with little revenue income from advertising. "Advertisers are aware of the benefits that will come with digital - new listeners, tighter targeting, and additional imaging opportunities with small screen displays," says Jay Conroy, MD of UK Radio for Clear Channel International. "At the moment though we lack rated listeners so have no currency to trade with." Agreement comes from Grae Allan, MD of Score Digital - Glasgow, Edinburgh and Northern Ireland digital licence holder. "Advertisers are standing back at the moment. We point out the opportunities that are available to them - interactivity, memory storage, additional text media - but many are understandably cautious. They're playing the numbers game and will only respond to 'bums on seats'. Radio is a long-term medium."

There's optimism that the advertising industry will eventually come round. "Agencies have been particularly responsive," says John Myers. "They will always want to buy more cleverly for their clients, and digital will provide the best delivery." Quentin Howard agrees : "Digital will take radio advertising on to a new level - storing information, allowing direct response - much more accessible and user friendly. At present advertisers are not responding, but they're aware of the benefits digital will bring."

But what about the challenge of internet radio? Has digital 'wire-less' broadcasting through the airwaves lost out to its 'wired' digital cousin, the PC? Quentin Howard doesn't see it as too much of a threat. "You can't take your computer into the shower! Internet radio can't cope with the portable nature of the medium, and there is of course the main problem of bandwidth congestion. Figures from the USA show that while 4% of the population use internet radio, 96% stay with conventional receivers." Grae Allan recognises that internet radio has its place : "Like the old short wave, foreign stations will always hold a certain attraction, but that doesn't count in listening figures. The portable and in-car receiver will remain the mainstay."

"It's horses for courses," says John Rosborough. "Some will want to listen while they surf, but who wants to sit in front of their PC listening to radio? It's a portable medium." John Myers puts it more strongly : "GMG is one of the few radio groups without internet presence - nothing yet has led me to believe that the future lies there and that it is worth investing millions in." Eric Lawrence, MD of Forever Broadcasting, however believes that the internet cannot be discounted completely.  "There's anything between 50,000 and 100,000 internet radio 'products' worldwide; but of course the audiences for each is small, so there's not much business for advertisers there. But I believe that the mobile internet is a very interesting proposition, and we're investing in the XY Network, seeing 'mobile telephony' as a way of catering for listeners on the move." The forthcoming 3rd generation mobile, UMTS (Universal Mobile Telecommunications System), is the one to watch for here, according to observers.

Lawrence's take on digital radio is typical of the long-term optimism of the industry. "As yet there are no great advantages, but in the fullness of time digital's potential will be realised. And the obvious pluses of improved sound quality and interactivity may only prove to be secondary. I'm sure there will be major technical steps forward and it will become more than 'analogue radio with extras'. It's a long way away, but digital will ensure that the radio of the future is nothing like we know it today."

Recent figures from a Radio Advertising Bureau (RAB) report confirm it will be a long haul - with only 46% of the population likely to be digital by 2009. But with the government's recent commendation of the industry's "groundbreaking work on digital radio" and its urging that manufacturers bring down receiver prices to allow access for everyone, it looks as if all the players are at least setting out on the march to the digital future in step. As Quentin Howard reiterates : "Digital radio is inevitable - it's not a question of if, but when!"